Macro Scenarios & Presets
Interactive Engine
Fed Expected 25bp Hikes (1-Yr)
4 hikes (+100 bps)
0 hikes (3.60%)
4 hikes (4.60%)
8 hikes (5.60%)
ECB Terminal Deposit Rate
3.25%
2.00%
3.25%
4.50%
BoE Terminal Bank Rate
4.75%
3.50%
4.75%
6.00%
Energy Shock Multiplier (Crude/Gas Spike)
1.25x (+25% Energy Fear)
1.00x Baseline
1.50x Severe Spike
2.00x Oil Crisis
Breakingviews Policy Diagnostic
Overpricing Audit
Model Rationale: While energy spikes pump headline CPI in the near term, terminal policy rates above neutral (approx 2.50%-3.00%) risk triggering rapid credit contraction. Reuters Breakingviews notes that pricing in 4 full hikes overshoots economic growth fundamentals.
Fed Implied Terminal
4.60%
4 hikes from 3.60% baseline
ECB Terminal Rate
3.25%
Deposit Facility Target
BoE Terminal Rate
4.75%
Bank Rate Peak
Terminal Spread (Fed vs Fair Value)
210 bps
Fair Value: 2.50% Neutral
12-Month Rate Trajectory Projection
Quarters Q0 - Q4
Cross-Bank Policy Divergence Matrix
Real-time Spreads
| Central Bank | Market Implied | Fundamental Fair | Divergence | Pricing Verdict |
|---|