Geopolitical Levers
DETERMINISTIC SIM
US/Coalition kinetic strikes against missile sites and launch depots
Crown prince bilateral negotiations and Gulf coalition sanctions
Destroyers & frigates providing convoy air-defense umbrellas
Geopolitical Context
Axios reports Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged Donald Trump to strike Houthi rebels in Yemen to secure the Red Sea shipping corridor. Strikes carry trade-offs between deterring ballistic attacks and provoking retaliatory saturation drones.
Maritime Risk Metrics
Shipping Risk Index
78.4%
Corridor threat probability per transit
Rerouted Fleet Share (via Cape)
Diverted away from Suez around Africa
Insurance Premium Spike
+310%
War-risk hull surcharge over baseline
Average Transit Delay Days
12.5 days
Asia-Europe transit delay addition
Regional Stability Score
41.2 / 100
Composite security rating
Export Data & Reports