Fenway Park Spatial Trajectory
37ft Green Monster & Pesky's Pole Overlay
Win Probability & Leverage Curve
Game leverage swing progression through 9th Inning
Exit Velocity
104.2 mph
Launch Angle
21°
Spray Angle
-28° (Left Field)
Base Runners
Outs
2 Outs
Preset Walk-Off Scenarios
Fenway Walk-Off Impact Report COMPLETED ANALYSIS
Caleb Durbin's 104.2 mph walk-off hit generated a +0.420 Win Probability Added (WPA) at a 4.85 Leverage Index. Trajectory vectors confirm a 385 ft carry clearing Fenway Park's 37 ft Green Monster in Left-Center field with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th inning.
| Metric Parameter | Simulated Value | Fenway Ground Truth | Clutch Impact Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit Distance & Direction | 385 ft (-28° Left-Center) | 385 ft (Wall Height: 37 ft) | Cleared Green Monster |
| Win Probability Before Hit | 58.0% | 58.0% (Score 3-3, B9, 2 Outs) | Baseline Leverage |
| Win Probability After Hit | 100.0% | 100.0% (Score 4-3 Final) | +0.420 WPA |
| Leverage Index (LI) | 4.85 | 4.85 (High-Leverage State) | 4.85x Standard Pressure |
| Expected Batting Average (xBA) | .890 | .890 (EV 104.2 mph / LA 21°) | Barreled Ball |