Stadium Flight Trajectory Simulator
Fenway Park Overlay
109.4 mph
28.5°
Statcast & Win Expectancy Shift
1st Inning Model
Computed & Simulated Successfully
Projected Distance
422ft
Apex Max Height
94.2ft
Hang Flight Time
5.4sec
Win Prob Boost
+12.4%
1st-Inning Game State Impact
A solo homer to lead off the bottom of the 1st jumps home baseline win expectancy from 54.0% to 66.4% (+12.4% net shift). Red Sox leadoff home runs historically yield a 71.8% game-winning clip at Fenway Park.
Recent Red Sox Rookie Leadoff HR Matrix
| Hitter | Exit Velo | Angle | Distance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Anthony* | 109.4 mph | 28.5° | 422 ft | Home Run (Leadoff) |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 106.8 mph | 29.0° | 408 ft | Home Run |
| Triston Casas | 110.2 mph | 26.4° | 429 ft | Home Run |
| Jarren Duran | 107.5 mph | 24.8° | 415 ft | Home Run (Leadoff) |
*Current simulated fixture grounded in @MLBONFOX live reporting.