Red Sox Series Finale Impact Engine | Tolle & Durbin Sabermetric Breakdown

Inning-by-Inning Win Probability Added (WPA)

Scrub through the 9-inning progression to analyze swing leverage & performance impact

Top 9th • Win Prob: 99.0%

RE24 Run Expectancy Matrix

Simulate base-out configurations to calculate expected run delta

Baserunner State

Outs

Select Hit / Play Outcome:

Initial Run Expectancy (RE) 1.52

Post-Play Expectancy + Runs 5.00

Net RE24 Value Added +3.48

Counterfactual Game Engine

Test alternate game timelines to evaluate win probability leverage

Actual Finale

Tolle 8.0 IP Shutout + Durbin Grand Slam (12 Runs)

Durbin 2B vs GS

Durbin hits a 2-run double instead of Grand Slam in 4th

Tolle 2 ER Allowed

Tolle surrenders 2 runs in 5th inning before bullpen

Scenario Delta Impact: Actual Game: Payton Tolle dominates with 8 scoreless IP (0.42 WPA), while Caleb Durbin produces 5 RBI including a key Grand Slam (+3.48 RE24). Peak Win Prob: 99.0%.

Inning Breakdown & High-Leverage Event Log

Inning	Pitcher / Key Batter	Event Summary	Leverage Index (LI)	WPA Delta	Win Prob

Source Grounding & Derived Methodology

Captured Source Facts (@MLB Post)

Payton Tolle: 8 shutout innings pitched (0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 9 K)
Caleb Durbin: 3-for-5 batting line, 1 Grand Slam, 5 total RBI
Red Sox Team Result: Series finale victory scoring 12 total runs
Source Post: MLB Official X Status 2088016849581527223

Derived Sabermetric Models

Tolle WPA Added: +0.42 cumulative Win Probability Added across 8 scoreless frames
Durbin WPA Added: +0.38 total swing leverage WPA boost across 5 plate appearances
RE24 Delta: +3.48 Run Expectancy jump on 4th Inning Grand Slam (1 out, bases loaded)
Peak Win Probability: Reached 0.99 (99.0%) in late innings

Game Breakdown & Win-Impact Summary Card

1200x630 high-resolution visual breakdown card containing the live D3 graph state, RE24 matrix, and player stats.