Red Sox vs Yankees Doubleheader Bullpen & Win Leverage Simulator

Twin-Bill Series Outcome Probabilities 18-Inning Causal Engine

Red Sox Sweep (2-0)

21.1%

G1 Win + G2 Win

Twin-Bill Split (1-1)

49.8%

Historical Baseline: 51.2%

Yankees Sweep (2-0)

29.1%

G1 Win + G2 Win

BOS 44.0% NYY 56.0%

BOS 48.0% NYY 52.0%

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Bullpen Fatigue Warning: High-leverage relievers deployed >25 pitches in G1 unavailable for high-leverage G2 spots.

18-Inning Pitching Management & Arm Strain Track Innings 1-9 (Day) ➔ 10-18 (Night)

Boston Red Sox Pitching Trajectory:

New York Yankees Pitching Trajectory:

SP Inning

Rested Bullpen

Med-Lev Burn

High-Lev Strain

G2 Fatigue Lockout

Managerial Workload & Leverage Controls Adjust Durations to Trigger Cascade

G1 SP Depth (Bello): 5.2 IP

G2 SP Depth (Crawford): 5.0 IP

G1 Bullpen Leverage Aggression

G1 SP Depth (Cole): 6.0 IP

G2 SP Depth (Rodón): 5.1 IP

G1 Bullpen Leverage Aggression

Head-to-Head Platoon Spray Chart

● Devers vs Cole | ● Judge vs Bello

Twin-Bill Tactical Metrics

Historical Rivalry Twin Bills

Historical Doubleheader Split Rate

Across 196+ AL East twin bills, 51.2% result in a 1-1 series split.

August 2006 "Boston Massacre II"

Yankees swept a 5-game set including a day-night doubleheader at Fenway.

Sept 1978 Rivalry Twin Bill

Classic September split that set up Bucky Dent's tiebreaker game.