LIVE MODEL 2026

Global Refinery Capacity & Outage Shock Simulator

Global Baseline: 83.4 MMbpd US PADD 3 Stress Buffer: 95.2% (TIGHT)

Process Flow Fractionation & Yield Sankey Dynamics

Real-time molecular cut conversion from crude throughput into finished clean products.

Effective Global Crude Intake: 83.4 MMbpd
GASOLINE YIELD
37.2 MMbpd (44.6%)
DIESEL / ULSD
27.8 MMbpd (33.3%)
JET FUEL / KERO
7.6 MMbpd (9.1%)
RESID / OTHER
10.8 MMbpd (13.0%)
Regional Supply / Demand Matrix & Deficit Radar Net Trade Balance vs Local Consumption
US Gulf Coast (PADD 3) NORMAL
Throughput 9.33 MMbpd
Net Export Exported +3.42 MMbpd
Distillate Cover 28.4 Days
FCC Fluid Cat Rate 96.8%
US East Coast (PADD 1) NORMAL
Throughput 0.76 MMbpd
Colonial Pipeline Intake 2.50 MMbpd
Distillate Cover 21.2 Days
Deficit Vulnerability High (Import Dep.)
Northwest Europe (ARA) NORMAL
Throughput 12.28 MMbpd
Diesel Deficit -0.95 MMbpd
ARA Gasoil Stocks 19.5 Days
Hydrocracker Stress 89.2%
Singapore / East of Suez NORMAL
Throughput 18.92 MMbpd
Asia-Pac Net Margin $14.20/bbl
Product Cover 24.1 Days
Bunker/Jet Export +1.85 MMbpd
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