⚡ 2026 Real Estate Macro Model

REIT Rate-Cycle & Dividend Allocation Workbench

Simulate Federal Reserve rate cut impacts on REIT refinancing, cap rate compression, and dividend yields

Strategy Presets

Macro & Portfolio Setup

DRIP: Enabled
Portfolio Capital $50,000
Interest Rate Cuts Scenario -150 bps (-1.50%)
0 bps (Hawkish Pause) -100 bps -225 bps (Aggressive Ease)
Asset Allocations 100%
VNQ (Broad REIT) Vanguard ETF
35%
SCHH (Equity Core) Schwab ETF
15%
AI Data Centers EQIX, DLR
20%
Casino Gaming VICI, GLPI
15%
Net-Lease Retail O, NNN, AGNC/WPC
15%

Rate Cycle Sensitivity & Yield Engine

Real-Time D3 Model
Blended Starting Yield
4.68%
Est. $195.00 / mo
Annual Dividend Income
$2,340.00
Base cash distribution
AFFO Refi Cost Savings
+8.4%
From -150 bps debt repricing
Projected 3-Yr Total Return
34.2%
Capital Apprec. + DRIP
5-Year Total Portfolio Growth ($)
● Rate Cut Scenario --- Baseline (0 bps cuts)
💡
Primary Alpha & Growth Driver
AI Data Center CapEx pipeline + 150bps refi tailwind

Head-to-Head ETF Matrix: Vanguard VNQ vs Schwab SCHH

Core Dimension Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH) Strategic Implication for 2026 Cycle
Expense Ratio 0.13% 0.07% Lower Fee SCHH gives ultra-low cost drag for broad baseline indexing.
Holdings Composition ~160 holdings (includes Telecom Towers & Specialized) ~120 holdings (Strict Equity REIT focus, excludes timber/towers) VNQ captures wireless tower upside (AMT, CCI); SCHH is pure-play commercial/residential.
Starting Dividend Yield ~4.20% ~3.85% VNQ provides slightly higher baseline distribution cashflow.
Rate Cut Refi Beta 1.12x Sensitivity 1.05x Sensitivity VNQ's leverage profile provides slightly stronger expansion kick as benchmark yields drop.
Top 10 Weight Concentration 47.5% of AUM 41.2% of AUM SCHH is more evenly distributed across mid-cap REIT operators.

Thematic Subsector Archetypes & 2026 Catalysts

Digital Infrastructure

AI Data Centers (EQIX, DLR)

Exponential power demand and hyperscaler leasing backlog insulate landlords. Structural supply shortage allows high double-digit releasing spreads.

Pricing Power: 9.4/10
Lease Escalators: 3.5% - 5.0%
Refinance Tail: CapEx Relief
Avg Dividend: ~3.2%
Gaming & Experiential

Vegas Casino Landlords (VICI, GLPI)

Master triple-net leases with 100% rent collection track records. Built-in CPI inflation linkage protects against sticky inflation while yields stay high.

Occupancy Rate: 100.0%
Weighted Lease Term: 41.2 Years
CPI Protection: 82% of leases
Avg Dividend: ~5.7%
Essential Triple-Net

Recession-Proof Net-Lease (O, NNN)

Dollar stores, pharmacies, grocery stores, and logistics. Tenants pay taxes, maintenance, and insurance. Prime beneficiary of Fed yield curve un-inversion.

Payout Track Record: 30+ Yrs Growth
Investment Grade Tenants: > 42%
Refi Sensitivity: High Accretion
Avg Dividend: ~5.9%
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