Analyze how childhood religious affiliation translates into adult adherence over time. Model the shift from historical baselines to modern disaffiliation trends based on Pew Research and demographic transitions.
| Generation | Cohort Share | Affiliated Adherents | Cumul. Disaffiliated | Transmission Loss |
|---|
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints previously enjoyed one of the highest retention rates in American religion (around 70% in 2007). Recent Pew analyses show this retention has dropped to 54%, mirroring a wider cultural trend where leavers predominantly disaffiliate into secular "nones" rather than converting to other faiths.
When a tradition's retention drops below 60%, demographic replacement struggles without significant convert inflows or very high fertility rates. Across three generations, a 54% retention rate results in only 15.7% of great-grandchildren remaining in the original faith.
Historically, people raised without religion frequently affiliated with a church as adults when marrying and having children. In modern cohorts, however, being raised "unaffiliated" has a retention rate approaching 68%, making secularism one of the fastest-growing and stickiest categories in the United States.