Sociological Demographic Simulation

Religious Cohort Dynamics & Non-Institutional Faith Dissipation Simulator

Empirical Markov cohort transition model evaluating David Voas's Fuzzy Fidelity Dissipation vs. Grace Davie's Believing Without Belonging hypothesis across generations (1950–2075).

Sociological Hypotheses

Transition Parameters

Fuzzy Faith Decay Rate 68%

Loss rate per generation from Believing w/o Belonging directly into Secular 'Neither'.

Institutional Retention 52%

Probability that children of Believing & Belonging parents maintain institutional affiliation.

Secular Inertia 94%

Probability of non-religious offspring remaining secular across subsequent generations.

Institutional Drift to Fuzzy Faith 38%

Share of institutional attrition departing into unchurched private belief vs complete disaffiliation.

Cohort Religious Distribution Trajectory (1950–2075)

Believing & Belonging
Believing w/o Belonging (Fuzzy)
Belonging w/o Believing
Neither (Secular)

Sociological Mechanism Assessment

Voas Mechanism Validated: Non-institutional belief exhibits steep intergenerational decay (68% transmission loss per cohort), acting as a transitional phase toward secular disaffiliation rather than a permanent reservoir.

Demographic Cohort Breakdown Matrix (% of Total Population)

Cohort Generation	Believing & Belonging	Fuzzy Faith (B w/o B)	Cultural (B w/o B)	Neither (Secular)	Net Belief Sum

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