Fixed downside
Rent, utilities, insurance/software, and furniture carrying cost remain even when gross bookings fall.
Revenue is not the remainder.
Decision support only. Verify local law, lease permission, taxes, demand, platform rules, and every cost before committing.
LOAD THE SAMPLE TO TEST THE LOOP
EXPECTED MONTHEXPECTED SPREAD: --
REVENUE FLOORBREAK-EVEN GROSS: --
BAD MONTHSTRESS SPREAD: --
Expected-month deduction lane
MARGIN: --Bad-month deduction lane
CUSHION: --Why the loop fails
Fixed rent remains due even when booking demand falls. Run the complete stack to reveal the actual decision boundary.
Truth boundary
No live demand, property, permit, lease, platform, or income claim is verified. The $180K headline is not modeled.
The lease stays fixed. Demand does not.
Variable drag
Platform fees and damage reserve move with gross revenue; cleaning moves with the number of stays.
Break-even first
Compare conservative demand evidence with the computed revenue floor before treating any headline spread as available cash.
Permission is separate
Profitable arithmetic does not establish lease consent, zoning, licensing, taxes, insurance coverage, or platform eligibility.
Source
The post supplies a $3,000 monthly owner payment and $7,000 gross booking example, then warns that cleaning, vacancy, fees, furniture, damage, and bad months decide the remainder.
Counterexample
The expected sample produces a positive $1,040 spread. The same lease loses $442 when revenue falls to 70%, proving that one good month does not erase fixed downside.
Transfer
Replace every sample assumption with verified figures for one candidate property. Demand evidence must clear the break-even gross with enough cushion for uncertainty.