Rockies San Francisco Series Breakdown & Run Expectancy Analyzer

Inning Win Probability & Leverage River Inning 5 (Decisive Rally)

Rockies Win Series in SF

Scrub Inning:

Colorado Win Prob

84.2%

Leverage Index

1.80 LI

Inning Delta WPA

+35.0%

Frame Runs

COL 3 - SF 0

Counterfactual Rally Engine Interactive Diamond

Outs Recorded

Bullpen Leverage / Fatigue

State Run Expectancy

1.43 Runs

Simulated Colorado WP

87.4%

Base-Out Run Expectancy Matrix (RE24) MLB Standard

Live Highlight: 1st & 2nd, 1 Out

Base State	0 Outs	1 Out	2 Outs
Empty (---)	0.481	0.254	0.098
1st only (1--)	0.859	0.509	0.214
2nd only (-2-)	1.068	0.664	0.305
3rd only (--3)	1.354	0.950	0.353
1st & 2nd (12-)	1.437	0.884	0.429
1st & 3rd (1-3)	1.784	1.130	0.471
2nd & 3rd (-23)	1.964	1.376	0.580
Bases Loaded (123)	2.282	1.520	0.736

Park Factor Normalization Oracle vs Coors

+3.9 Runs Above Oracle Baseline

Oracle Park (SF)

0.920 Factor (-8% scoring)

Expected COL Runs: 5.1 Runs

Coors Field (COL)

1.340 Factor (+34% scoring)

Series Final Output: 9 Actual Runs

Series Context: The Rockies overcame San Francisco's heavy pitcher-friendly suppression, generating a +3.9 Run Surplus above standard Oracle Park expectation through explosive rallies in innings 3 (2 runs), 5 (3 runs), and 8 (3 runs).