Oil Shock & Indian Rupee FX Transmission Simulator

Shock Parameters

Brent Crude Price $92.50 / bbl

$70 (Low) $100 (Stress) $130 (Crisis)

Geopolitical Scenarios

RBI Forex Defense Policy

No Intervention ($0Bn/mo)

Free float, maximum INR depreciation

Moderate Defense ($5Bn/mo)

Smooth volatility, preserve reserve buffer

Aggressive Defense ($12Bn/mo)

Defend Rupee level, rapid reserve burn

Transmission Stage: Moderate Shock

Crude at $92.50/bbl expands India's import bill by $2.10B monthly. USD/INR faces upward pressure towards 84.18, prompting moderate RBI forex reserve intervention.

Macro Linkage Network (D3 Flow Engine) Flow Velocity: Elevated

Exogenous Shock

Trade & FX Balance

Inflation & Rate Defense

FX Transmission Dashboard Monthly Run-Rate

Monthly Addl. Import Bill +$2.10 Bn Base demand: 4.80M bpd

Projected USD/INR Rate 84.18 Move: -0.81% (Base: 83.50)

Import Cover Capacity 10.4 Months Reserves: $635.0 Bn

Current Macro Status High Import Inflation & FX Reserve Pressure

PROVEN COMPUTED METRICS:

Import Bill Add: +$2.10 Bn

USD/INR Target: 84.18

INR Depr Pct: -0.81%

Import Cover: 10.4 Months

Stage: High Import Inflation & FX Reserve Pressure