San Juan Water Rationing & Hydrology Simulator

Scenario Presets

Hydrological & Rationing Parameters

July Rainfall Anomaly vs 120-Yr Normal: -78%

Severe Drought (-95%) Historical Avg (0%) Above Normal (+20%)

Carraízo & La Plata Starting Capacity: 42%

Critical (15%) Current Observed (42%) Normal Storage (90%)

Household Water Demand (Gallons/Day): 120 GPD

Strict Saving (60 GPD) Baseline (120 GPD) High Usage (200 GPD)

Imposed Emergency Water Rationing Tier:

Tier 0: Voluntary

No mandated cutoffs

Tier 1: 12-Hr Alternating

35% Demand Reduction

Tier 2: 24-Hr Severe

55% Demand Reduction

Carraízo & La Plata Depletion Curve (60-Day Forward Forecast)

Dead Storage Limit: 15% Capacity

Daily Supply Deficit

42.8 MGD

Million Gallons / Day

Days to Dead Storage

29 Days

Critical Threshold (15%)

Polymarket Implied Probability

Will San Juan Emergency Water Rationing Extend Past August 31?

76%

Market Odds: YES @ 76¢

Probability is derived from forward reservoir drawdown models, rainfall deficit projections, and required storage recovery levels before emergency orders can be safely lifted by local authorities.

Emergency Infrastructure Mitigation

Cloud Seeding Operations

+8 MGD Inflow Booster

Superaqueduct Groundwater Integration

+15 MGD Emergency Transfer

System Pressure Reduction & Leak Repairs

12% Reduction in Unaccounted Losses

Scenario Management

Simulated Hydrological Result

San Juan Metro Basin baseline simulation active. Carraízo and La Plata reservoirs expected to hit dead storage in 29 days under -78% July rainfall anomaly.