Saudi Oil Chokepoint & Export Routing Simulator

Scenarios

Production & East-West Pipeline

Base Production (mbpd) 10.50

Petroline Max Cap (mbpd) 7.00

Pipeline Operational Status 85%

Maritime Chokepoint Status

Strait of Hormuz

Bab el-Mandeb (Red Sea Threat)

Simulation Details

Saudi Arabia pumps oil primarily from the Eastern Province (Ghawar/Ras Tanura). The East-West Petroline (1,200 km) provides a bypass to Yanbu on the Red Sea. When Houthi anti-ship missiles threaten Bab el-Mandeb, tankers must detour around the Cape of Good Hope or halt, reducing effective Red Sea evacuation.

Export Capacity

10.50 mbpd

Constrained Flow

8.95 mbpd

Export Shortfall

1.55 mbpd

Primary Bottleneck

Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb (Houthi Threat)

Status: Active threat around Bab el-Mandeb forces Red Sea tanker friction. Despite Petroline running at 85% (5.95 mbpd), rerouting limits create an export shortfall of 1.55 mbpd.

Corridor / Segment	Theoretical Cap	Current Active Flow	Status / Bottleneck Note

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