Demographic Momentum & Migration Cohort Simulator

Projected Year 2075 Timeline scrubbing target

Africa Population 2,480M Reproductive Cohort (15-49): 52%

Europe Population 690M Reproductive Cohort (15-49): 41%

Cumulative Migration Share Impact on Europe pop structure

PRESETS:

Simulation Projection Year 2075

Africa TFR (Fertility Rate) 4.10

Europe TFR (Fertility Rate) 1.50

Annual Net Migration Rate (Africa → Europe) 0.10%

Regional Age Pyramids (5-Year Cohorts)

Africa

Europe

Population Trajectories & Dependency Ratios (2025–2100)

Cohort-Component Model Mechanics

This engine implements standard UN Population Division cohort-component mechanics. Five-year cohorts age progressively into adjacent brackets every 5 simulation years. Age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) concentrated in the 15–49 reproductive window drive births, while mortality survivorship curves dictate cohort attrition. Age-selective migration transfers young reproductive cohorts (primarily ages 18–35) from Africa to Europe, accounting for both immediate structural shifts and secondary reproductive momentum in destination cohorts.