Base Turnout Shift
+4.2%
▲ Rally Elasticity Gain
Novice Recognition Gain
+6.8%
★ Endorsement Multiplier
Opposition Counter-Turnout
+2.1%
▼ Friction & Heckling Backlash
Net Projected Margin
+1.85%
Lean Hold
Demographic Cohort Turnout Elasticity & Shift
Base Pool: 3,200,000 Voters
Direct manipulation of rally cadence and opposition friction alters turnout distribution across Rural Base, Suburban Swing, and Urban Core cohorts.
Campaign Intensity vs Net Margin Trajectory
Simulated Elasticity Curve
Compares incumbent party advantage across 0 to 8 rally milestones against rising counter-mobilization backlash.