Valuation Waterfall ($ Billions)
From 2022 $100B Benchmark to Implied EV
Average Garment Cost Stack (Avg Retail $12.00)
Net Profit: $0.45
COGS $3.40
Freight $3.10
CAC $3.00
Tariff $2.05
Net $0.45
*Assumes average basket size of 3.1 items per $38 order with fast direct air shipments from Guangzhou hubs.
Valuation Friction Breakdown
| Friction Vector | Driver / Policy Mechanism | Enterprise Value Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline Peak Hype | 2022 Peak Funding Round Benchmark | $100.0B |
| De Minimis & Tariff Drag | Active exemption baseline overhead | -$8.2B |
| Air Freight Cost Inflation | Air cargo vs ocean logistics spread | -$14.6B |
| Temu CAC Price War | Bidding wars across Google/Meta ad inventories | -$16.0B |
| Listing & Governance Discount | London LSE regulatory multiple discount | -$20.0B |
| Implied Current Valuation | Post-Friction Realized Secondary Value | $41.2B |