Shein Post-IPO Unit Economics & Valuation Stress Lab

Macro & Operating Stress Inputs Continuous Sensitivity

US De Minimis Tariff Rate 18.0%

0% (Exempt) Section 321 reform drag 35% (Full Apparel Duty)

Paid CAC / Ad Inflation +24.0%

0% (Stable) Temu & TikTok auction pressure +50% (Saturated)

Expedited Air Freight Mix 70.0%

30% (Ocean / Hubs) Direct-from-China air ratio 90% (Pure Air Charter)

ESG & Supply Chain Compliance $420M

$100M (Minimum) Labor audit, tracing & legal $1,000M (Strictest)

EBITDA Exit Multiple 11.0x

6.0x (Distressed) Market rerating band 22.0x (High Growth Tech)

Caution Cross-Border Supply Chain Rebalance Essential

Under 18% tariff drag and elevated air charter reliance, operating margin falls to 1.9%, eroding $26.6B in equity enterprise value. Transitioning volume to regional distribution centers or increasing AOV is essential to defend public multiple.

Revenue / Gross GMV $32.50B 773.8M orders @ $42 AOV

Operating Income (EBIT) $0.62B -$2.05B vs Base

Operating Margin 1.9% -6.3 pts vs 8.2% Base

Implied Enterprise Value $38.4B -$26.6B rerating

Operating Margin Breakdown Waterfall ($ Billions) Revenue to EBIT bridge

Per-Parcel Unit Economics Bridge (Baseline $42.00 Order) Net Parcel Profit: $0.80

Enterprise Valuation Sensitivity Matrix ($ Billions) WACC Discount Rate vs. EBITDA Exit Multiple

Interactive stress surface: cells map implied Enterprise Value under current stressed operating profit ($0.62B). Highlighted cell reflects selected multiple.

Multiple \ WACC	8.5%	9.5%	10.5% (Base)	11.5%	12.5%	13.5%

Audited Scenario Identifier: stress-customs-18-cac-24