Sirius XM Megacap Upside Model - Deutsche Bank Upgrade Thesis Analyzer

Channel Assumptions & Levers

YouTube Syndication Channel

Monthly Video Reach 45M

Syndicated talk, comedy & music clip impressions

Ad-Tier Digital ARPU $4.85

Net ad monetization per active monthly user

Full App Conversion 1.8%

Conversion to paid standalone streaming tier

Amazon Prime / Echo Bundle

Prime/Echo Eligible Base 80M

Prime household & Alexa smart-speaker cohort

Bundle Adoption Penetration 3.2%

Homes activating bundled Sirius XM digital access

Wholesale Bundle ARPU $3.75

Net monthly wholesale payout from Amazon

Corporate Levers & Valuation

SAC Reduction (Megacap Funnel) 18%

Lower OEM hardware subsidies & direct CAC

Exit EV / EBITDA Multiple 8.5x

Sirius XM target multiple on expanded FCF

Deutsche Bank Thesis Note: Analysts view YouTube content syndication and Amazon Prime audio integrations as structural re-rating catalysts that diversify Sirius XM beyond declining in-car OEM satellite reliance, unlocking +50% target upside.

Valuation & Incremental Cash Flow Bridge

Valuation Multiple & SAC Savings Sensitivity ($ Implied Stock Price)

EV / EBITDA Multiple	0% SAC Savings	10% SAC Savings	18% (Model)	25% SAC Savings	35% SAC Savings

Operational Channel Economics Decomposition

Channel Component	Monthly Run-Rate	Annual Gross	Partner Payout / COGS	Net Incremental FCF