Smoking Cessation Mortality Risk Curve Simulator

Based on Jha et al. (NEJM 2013) & Doll et al. (BMJ 2004) Cohorts
Life Expectancy Regained
+9.1 yrs
vs. continuing smoker
Excess Risk Avoided
89.4%
avoided excess mortality
Survival to Age 80
66.8%
vs 38.0% current
Residual Life Loss
0.9 yrs
relative to never-smoker
Cohort Survival Trajectories (Ages 25–90)
Never Smoker
Quit at Age 35
Current Continuous Smoker
Landmark Epidemiological Findings (Jha et al., NEJM 2013; Doll et al., BMJ 2004)
Smokers lose an average of 10 years of life compared to never-smokers. Quitting before age 40 reduces the excess risk of death by approximately 90%, regaining ~9 years of life expectancy. Quitting at ages 45–54 regains ~6 years, and quitting at ages 55–64 regains ~4 years. Even at older ages, immediate cessation confers statistically significant survival advantages.
Comparative Cohort Milestones Table
Cessation Age Bracket Life Expectancy Regained Excess Risk Avoided Survival to Age 70 Survival to Age 80