Age-Cohort Probability & Gompertz Hazard Simulator p5.js + D3.js

Cohort Agent Lifecycle Canvas 1 Year / 1.5s
Horizontal Position: Preference Shift (Peace/Simplicity vs Action) Vertical Position: Age Progression
Surv. S(t), Hazard h(t) & Preference Density
Current Cohort Age
20.0 yrs
Surviving Fraction S(t)
100.0%
Instant Hazard h(t)
0.0005/yr
Mean Preference Index
0.15
Model Parameters & Presets
20 yrs
0.00010
0.085
0.035
Presets:
Gompertz-Makeham Hazard Equation
h(t) = α · e^(β · t) + γ

S(t) = exp( - ∫₀ᵗ h(u) du ) = exp( -(α/β)(e^(β·t) - 1) - γt )

Gompertz hazard modeling shows exponential increase in age-specific mortality. Parameter α sets initial mortality rate, while β represents exponential senescence acceleration.

Age-Cohort-Period (APC) Decomposition

The question "What are you starting to like more as you get older?" involves three distinct statistical components:

  • Age Effect: Biological & experiential preference shift over time.
  • Cohort Effect: Generational baseline preferences established at birth.
  • Period Effect: Global cultural/technological trends affecting all ages simultaneously.
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