Market-implied probabilities & binary prediction market contract pricing based on Wall Street targets
Market Parameters
Wall Street Forecast Presets
8,400
6,000
18.5%
140 Days
Implied Probability4.2%Log-normal tail prob.
Prediction Market YES4.2¢Fair binary contract
Payout Leverage23.8xPotential YES return
Required Ann. CAGR142.3%Annualized growth speed
Log-Normal Price Probability Density (D3.js Visualizer)
Green Tail Area = 4.2%
Ed Yardeni's target of 8,400 requires a 40.0% gain in 140 days (142.3% annualized CAGR). Log-normal Black-Scholes probability implies a 4.2% chance of breach, yielding a fair prediction market contract price of 4.2¢.