POLYMARKET SPX

SPX 2026 Forecast Workbench

Current SPX: 5,650.00
Target Year: 2026-12-31
Status: LIVE NORMALIZED
Market Expected SPX 5,912 +4.64% Implied Growth
Implied Std Deviation ± 584 pts ~ 10.33% Volatility
Macro Fair Value (EPS × P/E) 6,160 $280 EPS @ 22.0x P/E
Valuation Misalignment +4.19% Macro Premium vs Market
Probability Density & Fair Value Overlay
■ Prediction Market Odds  |  ▲ Macro Target Peak
Interactive Model Note: Drag probability sliders on the right or apply scenario presets. Probabilities automatically re-normalize to 100%. The blue target line represents your configured macro EPS × P/E aggregate valuation.
Bracket Probability Weights
Macro Valuation Engine
2026 Aggregate EPS Target ($) $280
Forward P/E Multiple 22.0x
Derived Index Fair Value: 6,160.00
Positioning & Misalignment Analysis
Cross-Asset Divergence Diagnostic
Macro Target Bracket: 6000 - 6499
Prediction market odds imply a 28.0% probability on the macro fair value bracket (6000-6499). The overall market distribution expects a mean close of 5,912, reflecting a 4.19% discount relative to fundamental EPS/PE guidance.
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