Demographic Sandbox

US State Population Decline & Outflow Projections (2025–2040)

Scenario Levers
Projection Year 2040
Outflow Velocity Multiplier 1.00x
Natural Replacement Offset 0.0%
Metric Representation
Cumulative Deficit Telemetry
Top 10 Aggregate Loss
-2,204K
Annual Contraction
-146.9K/yr
Steepest Absolute Loss
IL (-650K)
Steepest % Contraction
WV (-8.36%)
Congressional Reapportionment Stress

US State Contraction Map (2025 to 2040)

Click any state for deep dive
Severe Loss (< -500K)
Moderate Loss Stable / Net Inflow
State Profile: Illinois IL
Baseline Population (2025)
12.55M
Projected Pop (Target)
11.90M
Net Demographic Delta
-650,000
Relative % Shift
-5.18%
15-Year Trajectory Curve -0.35%/yr
Declining States Data Table
State Delta (K) % Shift
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