Old-Age Support Pressure
Retirees (65+) per 100 working-age adults. Higher values increase Social Security & Medicare fiscal obligations.
Labor Force Capacity
Total prime working-age cohort available to support the tax base and power production.
Potential Real GDP (2075)
Annual real output divergence driven by labor supply volume and compound productivity growth.
Scenario Benchmark Matrix (2050 vs 2075)
Comparing current active policy settings against CBO Baseline and Restrictionist extremes.
| Metric Horizon | Active Scenario | CBO Baseline | Zero Net Migration | Talent Magnet (+2M) |
|---|
Demographic Momentum & Macroeconomic Model Methodology
Cohort-Component Forecasting: The simulator groups the United States population into 19 five-year age cohorts (0–4 to 90+) for males and females. Over every 5-year step, cohorts age forward using age-specific survival probabilities derived from the CDC/NCHS US Life Tables.
Fertility & Births: Newborn cohorts (0–4) are computed based on the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) distributed across female childbearing cohorts (ages 15–44) using empirical age-specific fertility curves (ASFR) with an assumed 105:100 male-to-female birth ratio.
Immigration Age Distribution: Net immigration flows are distributed across age groups based on historical US Census Bureau and Pew Research distributions (peak concentration among prime working ages 20–39).
Macroeconomic Linkages:
- Labor Supply: Working-age population is weighted by labor force participation rates, adjusted dynamically by the Retirement Age shift parameter.
- Potential GDP: Real GDP projections follow a Cobb-Douglas / Solow-Swan framework: \( Y_t = Y_0 \times (L_t / L_0)^\alpha \times (1 + g)^t \), with labor share \(\alpha = 0.65\) and productivity growth \(g\).
- Fiscal Strain Index: Derived from the ratio of non-working elderly beneficiaries to tax-paying active workers, benchmarking Social Security and Medicare financing sustainability.