Stocktwits Retail Sentiment & Price Drop Tracker

Source Incident: @Stocktwits captured $COIN retail sentiment plunging 54% over 21 days immediately prior to an 11% market collapse, triggering spillover across $CRCL (-12%), $XRP (-10%), and $BTC (-4%).

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Simulation Scenarios Presets

$COIN Sentiment Decline 54%

Stocktwits retail sentiment score drop over test window

Decay Window Period 21 Days

Rolling lookback window leading into spot price action

Primary Focal Asset $COIN

Divergence Score 8.4 / 10

Projected Drawdown -11.0%

Sentiment Velocity -2.57%/d

Warning Category Critical

Leading Retail Sentiment vs Actual Spot Drawdown Curve Normalized % Base (T=0)

Observed Market Spillover ($COIN, $CRCL, $XRP, $BTC) Asset: COIN

Ticker / Asset	Sentiment Shift	Observed Drop	Implied Elasticity	Risk Tier

Audited Output State: High Bearish Divergence Warning

Divergence Metric: 8.4 / 10

Lead Drop Impact: -11.0%