Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint Transit & Rerouting Impact Simulator

Disruption Scenarios LIVE MODEL

Chokepoint & Fleet Dynamics

Hormuz Transit Blockade 100%

Disruption Duration (Days) 45 d

Saudi East-West Pipeline Bypass (Mb/d) 4.5 Mb/d

Abu Dhabi ADCOP Fujairah Bypass (Mb/d) 1.5 Mb/d

Cape of Good Hope Rerouting Added Cost +$4.20 / bbl

Global Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release (Mb/d) 2.0 Mb/d

STRATEGIC MARITIME PASSAGE: STRAIT OF HORMUZ [STATUS: BLOCKED]

Blocked Tanker Route

Active Bypass Pipeline

Cape of Good Hope Long-Haul

Stranded / Queued VLCCs

Cumulative Net Supply Shock vs Strategic Drawdowns 45-Day Trajectory Forecast

Global Market Telemetry CRITICAL

Hormuz Flow Trapped

20.5 Mb/d

Peacetime: ~20.5M bpd

Bypass Pipeline Relief

6.0 Mb/d

Yanbu + Fujairah Ops

Net Daily Global Deficit

12.5 Mb/d

After SPR Mitigation

Est. Brent Spike Pressure

+$48.50

Base $80/bbl → $128.50

Regional Destination Vulnerability

Destination Region	Exposed	Supply Deficit	Added Transit

Fleet & Ton-Mile Logistics

Stranded VLCC Fleet (>2M bbl each): 318 Tankers

Cape Rerouting Extra Days: +14 to 18 Days

Global Ton-Mile Expansion: +72.4%

Cumulative Oil Lost (Period): 562.5 Million bbl

Actionable Maritime Assessment

Loading assessment...