Strike Forensics & Munition Analysis Workbench

Methodology: Open-Source Geotechnical Blast Scaling & Defense Logistics Marking OSINT
1. Geotechnical Crater Morphology (Interactive Cross-Section) D3 Geotechnical Caliper

Drag blue calipers to adjust crater diameter and depth sounding probe. Scaled distance dynamically calculates Hopkinson-Cranz TNT Net Explosive Weight (NEW).

2. Impact Ballistics & Spall Dispersal Fan Trajectory Reconstruction
3. Munition Fragment & CAGE Markings OSINT CAGE / NSN Registry
CAGE 96214 Verified: Boeing Defense, Space & Security (St. Charles, MO). Known component: JDAM Guidance Kit Tail Actuator Sub-assembly.
Computed Blast Physics & Hopkinson Scaling Hopkinson-Cranz
Est. Net Explosive Wt
87.4 kg
TNT Equiv (±12%)
Excavated Volume
6.24 m³
Parabolic Geoid Model
Overpressure at 15m
14.8 psi
Lethal Overpressure Zone
Terminal Velocity Est.
318 m/s
Free-fall terminal vector
Forensic Concordance Matching 94.2% Match
GBU-38 / Mk-82 (500-lb JDAM) 94.2% Concordance

High statistical match: 87.4 kg calculated explosive yield aligns with standard 89 kg Tritonal / PBXN-109 fill. CAGE 96214 directly identifies Boeing JDAM tail assembly. Steep impact angle of 68° indicates precision GPS terminal plunge typical of guided JDAM engagement.

CriteriaObserved / CalculatedBaseline StandardStatus
Explosive Mass87.4 kg TNT87 - 89 kg TritonalCONCORDANT
Casing Thickness12.4 mm12.0 - 13.5 mm forgedCONCORDANT
Descent Vector68° @ Az 312°55° - 75° GPS ProfileCONSISTENT
Manufacturer CAGE96214 (Boeing)US Munition Supply ChainVERIFIED
Alternative Ordnance Baselines
GBU-31 / Mk-84 (2,000-lb JDAM) 14.8% (Crater far too small; yield 428kg)
AGM-114R Hellfire (100-lb class) 28.1% (Blast signature exceeds 9kg warhead)
155mm M795 HE Artillery Shell 41.5% (Casing metallurgy/markings mismatch)
OSINT Chain of Custody & Provenance Verification Log
Incident Date: 2026-09-03 18:45:00 UTC | Venue: Civilian strike venue
SHA-256 Ledger Seal: 7c4e5b98a3c20fa6de0546dbe624ea8848db59d7d132cb039dca6154b7914001

INDEPENDENT MUNITION STRIKE FORENSICS DOSSIER

Generated under International Open-Source Forensic Standards • Incident: Iran Wedding Strike Probe Analysis

Physical Measurements & Scaled Yield

Crater Diameter: 3.8 m

Crater Apparent Depth: 1.1 m

Geological Substrate: Compact Clay / Alluvium

Calculated Net Explosive Weight (NEW): 87.4 kg TNT Eq.

Excavated Crater Volume: 6.24 m³

Ballistics & Hardware Identification

Trajectory Descent Angle: 68°

Approach Azimuth: 312°

Forward Soil / Spall Throw: 24.2 m

Fragment CAGE Code: 96214 (Boeing Defense)

Identified Munition: GBU-38 / Mk-82 (500-lb JDAM) (94.2% Concordance)

Investigative Assessment: Physical crater morphology, high-angle precision terminal descent trajectory, and verified CAGE 96214 tail actuation actuator fragments are consistent with a direct strike by a US-manufactured 500-lb GBU-38 JDAM guided bomb.
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