S

Sudan Militia Fragmentation & Coalition Map

150+ Armed Groups Simulation • Source: The Economist
SAF-Aligned (42)
RSF-Aligned (38)
Local Defense (45)
Splinter/Autonomous (25)
Conflict Evolution Timeline Phase II: Opportunistic Coalition Splintering
April 2023 (Binary SAF vs RSF) Late 2023 (Local Militia Surge) 2024–2025 (Hyper-Fragmentation) Late 2025+ (Micro-Warfare)
Coalition Dynamics & Risk LIVE MODEL
Stability Index
High Risk / Hyper-Fragmented
Total Factions
150
Projected Splinters (Next Phase)
18
Dominant Risk Zone
Darfur & Kordofan Corridors
Systemic Pressure Levers
External Supply & Arms Flow 65%
Central Command Breakdown 78%
Resource & Gold Competition 82%
Local Territorial Friction 70%
North Darfur Joint Protection Force
ID: MIL-042 • Region: North Darfur
Local Defense

Local coalition defense network organized around major humanitarian corridors and urban garrisons. High risk of opportunistic fragmentation.

Est. Personnel: 4,200
Revenue Source: Customs & Local Taxation
Cohesion Rating: 42%
Splinter Vulnerability: High
Regional Security Vacuum Matrix
Region Militia Density Corridor Risk Vacuum Index
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