CNBC Political Finance Intelligence • Special Report Model

Super PAC Campaign Spend Impact & Race Allocation Simulator

Modeled on Make America Great Again Inc.'s $403,000,000 war chest deployment across key 2026 congressional battlegrounds.

Total War Chest Deployed
$403,000,000
✓ Exactly 100% Allocated ($403M)
Total Capital Allocated
$403,000,000
24 Competitive House Targets
Estimated Vote Swing Avg
+4.2%
Net Persuasion & Mobilization Shift
Projected House Seat Flips
9 Flips
Races shifting past +0.0% win threshold

War Chest Channel Allocation

Dynamic Elasticity Model
$180M
Market saturation inflection: $150M 44.7% of fund
$120M
Hyper-targeted voter ID & search 29.8% of fund
$63M
Door knocks, field offices, GOTV 15.6% of fund
$40M
High-propensity absentee & swing voters 9.9% of fund
1.45x
1.00x = standard national baseline 2.00x = hyper-expensive media markets
24 Districts
Concentrated focus Broad defensive map

Diminishing Marginal Return & Saturation Yield Curve

Live Simulation

Calculates gross vs. effective vote swing per $10M deployed, highlighting where ad inventory congestion erodes voter recall.

Congressional Battleground District Ledger

24 Key Races Analyzed

Real-time simulation across battleground congressional seats. Margins reflect initial baseline deficit plus calculated super PAC swing.

District Classification Baseline Deficit PAC Swing Projected Net Outcome Status
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