Brazil-US Tariff Reciprocity & Retaliatory Flow Engine

Weighted Counter-Tariff

21.8%

Targeted US import base ($4.2B target)

Projected Duty Yield

R$ 5.12B

≈ $1.02B USD fiscal collection

Trade Diversion Risk

Moderate-High

Elasticity of substitution: 1.45 - 2.80

Welfare Impact (Est.)

-$340.5M

Deadweight loss + Brazilian consumer friction

Targeted Sector Countervailing Matrix CAMEX Resolution Phase

Adjust retaliatory surcharges per product stream under WTO suspension quotas ($78.4B total trade baseline).

Sector / Product	Base Vol ($M)	Elasticity (ε)	Counter-Tariff (%)	Est. Yield ($M)	Diversion

* Note: Countervailing tariff rates are calibrated against equivalent damage of US Sec 232/301 shock and WTO GATT Article XXVIII nullification benchmarks.

Trade Stream Reaction & Diversion Dynamics D3 Real-Time Vector

Calculated trade absorption vs. third-party diversion (Mercosur / EU / Asia) following retaliatory friction.

Retained US Imports

Third-Party Diversion

Destroyed / Unmet Demand

Brazil Domestic Yield

CAMEX Legal Reciprocity Procedure Tracker WTO Dispute DS620 Alignment

STAGE 01 · ACTIVE

Formal Consultation

MDIC/CAMEX notice served; 30-day bilateral consultation window invoked under GATT Article XXII.

STAGE 02 · ACTIVE

CAMEX Public Resolution

GECEX published provisional equivalent retaliation schedule ($4.2B targeted goods base).

STAGE 03 · PENDING

TEC Tariff Implementation

Common External Tariff (TEC) exception surcharges enacted into Siscomex import customs database.

STAGE 04 · ARBITRATION

WTO DSB Notification

Formal transmission of reciprocal suspension list to WTO Dispute Settlement Body in Geneva.