Actual Duty Cut
$30.0B
Target: $30.0B
Consumer Surplus Delta
+$24.6B
82% retail pass-through
Import Volume Boost
+7.4%
+$33.2B bilateral goods
Net Economic Welfare
+$14.8B
Surplus minus tariff loss
Bilateral Sector Duty Comparison ($ Billions Annualized)
Baseline Tariff Duty
Negotiated New Duty
Sector Trade Volume
Bilateral Sector Trade Base ($B) Baseline Tariff Negotiated Tariff Tariff Cut ($B) Volume Shift Consumer Gain ($B)
Consensus Summary: Lowering bilateral duties by $30.0B across high-tech electronics, agriculture, and industrial hardware generates $24.6B in direct consumer & enterprise input savings. Trade volume expands by 7.4% without re-igniting structural import friction.
Armington general equilibrium state converged.
Model Ready
Methodology & Economic Model Specifications (Armington Elasticity & Welfare Accounting)

Following the Beijing-Washington bilateral agreement announcing a $30 billion tariff reduction and dedicated high-level AI dialogue, this workbench computes primary and secondary macroeconomic impacts using standard microeconomic trade flow formulas:

Data structures map closely to real bilateral customs categories: Advanced Compute & Electronics, Industrial Machinery, Agricultural Staples (Soy/Corn/Pork), Clean Tech & EV components, Consumer Goods, and Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals.

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