Your 12-month skill trajectory, in 3D
Green bars = cumulative expected skill value by month (salary lift × completion odds, ramping in after month 6). Drag to rotate. Every slider reshapes the bars.
Why completion probability dominates
MOOC research consistently finds completion rates between 5–15% for free self-paced courses, but 40–70% for funded cohorts with deadlines, mentors, and peer pressure. That is the entire economic argument for cohort scholarships: the certificate isn't worth more, the probability of finishing is. Doubling your completion odds doubles your expected ROI without studying one extra hour — check it on the slider above.
A worked example
Suppose you study 10 hrs/week for 12 months (~520 hours), earn $400/month now, and a completed credential + portfolio typically lifts earnings 40% in your market. With a 60% chance of finishing:
| Quantity | Formula | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Hours invested | 10 × 52 | 520 hrs |
| Full-success gain | $400 × 40% × 12 | $1,920 / yr |
| Expected gain | $1,920 × 0.60 | $1,152 / yr |
| Value per hour | $1,152 ÷ 520 | ≈ $2.22 / hr, recurring every year |
The per-hour number looks small in year one — but unlike wage work it recurs: the lift compounds across your whole career. Ten years at that lift is $11,500+ from one funded cohort.
How to actually win one of 500 seats
1. Apply early: rolling reviews mean late applications compete for fewer seats. 2. Show consistency, not credentials: selectors look for evidence you finish things — a 60-day GitHub streak beats a list of started courses. 3. State a specific outcome: "I will build X and apply to Y roles" outperforms "I want to learn tech." 4. Budget the hours first: programs report that dropouts overwhelmingly cite time, not difficulty. If the slider above says 15 hrs/week and you have 5, pick a lighter track — a finished small program beats an abandoned big one.