RECOMMENDATION
Over 64 Receiving Yards (Spider's Pick)
CONFIDENCE RATING
HIGH (A-)
Projected Yards
72.5
+8.5 vs line
Hit Probability
68.4%
Monte Carlo (10k)
Historical Hit Rate
71.4%
5 of 7 games
Fair Odds (American)
-216
Implied Value
Recent Game Logs vs Prop Line
Receiving yards per game; green bars indicate line covered
Over Line
Under Line
Opponent Matchup Vulnerability Matrix
Favorable (Top 10 vs WR1)
Washington Commanders Secondary vs Wide Receiver 1
Pass Yds Allowed / Game
254.8
Rank: #29 in NFL (Vulnerable)
Opp. WR1 Target Success
69.2%
Top 6 Highest Allowed
Explosive Pass Rate (>20y)
14.1%
+3.4% above league avg