Bilateral Trade Deal & Tariff Impact Simulator

Model tariff negotiations between major partners (US–China bilateral summit framework), evaluate sectoral elasticity, price pass-through, and supply chain rerouting.

Negotiation Levers

Summit Macro Framework

Overall Target Tariff Shift 0%

Simultaneous across-the-board bilateral adjustment

Consumer & Producer Pass-Through 70%

Share of tariff burden absorbed by domestic buyers vs exporter margins

Global Supply Chain Diversion 45%

Contraction displaced to Vietnam, Mexico, India & third-party hubs

Sectoral Tariff Adjustments

1. Advanced Electronics & Semis 25%

Baseline trade: $135B · Inelastic supply chain (ε = -0.72)

2. Agriculture & Ag-Tech 10%

Baseline trade: $42B · Highly elastic substitution (ε = -1.45)

3. Clean Tech, EV & Batteries 35%

Baseline trade: $55B · Critical strategic category (ε = -0.90)

4. Critical Minerals & Rare Earths 15%

Baseline trade: $28B · Processing bottleneck (ε = -0.40)

5. Industrial Machinery & Tools 20%

Baseline trade: $82B · Capital equipment cycle (ε = -1.10)

6. Consumer Goods & Apparel 15%

Baseline trade: $118B · Broad retail exposure (ε = -1.25)

Concession Framework

Ag Purchase Commitment Quota $12B

Mandated purchase floor offsets tariff demand destruction

Currency & Export Stability Factor Balanced

FX depreciation offsets tariffs; bilateral stabilization anchors volume

Final Trade Volume 0%

$460.0B

Baseline: $460.0B

Tariff Customs Revenue Avg: 20.1%

$87.4B

+Annual Fiscal Intake

Price Pressure (CPI) Domestic Shock

+0.42%

Est. $61.2B burden

3rd-Party Diversion VN / MX / IN

$32.5B

Supply rerouted

Bilateral Supply Chain & Revenue Routing

Retained Bilateral Flow Treasury Customs Yield Rerouted 3rd-Party

Sector-by-Sector Elasticity & Volume Impact

Trade Flow vs Diverted Supply ($B)

Summit Deal Feasibility & Leverage Index

Analyzing parity between concessions and price pass-through shock...

76/100

High Viability Truce

Ready: adjust sliders or choose a summit scenario.

Methodology & Economic Model

This interactive tool computes sectoral trade contractions and tariff yields based on empirical trade elasticity parameters:

Import Demand Contraction: ΔQ = Q₀ × ε × [Δτ / (1 + τ₀)], where ε is sectoral import demand elasticity.
Pass-Through Rate: Models the share of tariff increases absorbed by domestic import prices versus compressed foreign operating margins.
Third-Country Diversion: Captures trade rerouting via secondary hubs (e.g., Vietnam, Mexico, India) to mitigate direct tariff barriers.
Concession Dampeners: Bilateral commitments (such as Ag purchase guarantees) insulate selected trade lanes from theoretical friction.

Strategic Negotiation Presets

Evaluate real-world summit scenarios grounded in current bilateral trade talks:

Bessent-He Truce: Targeted rollbacks on agricultural and machinery friction paired with structured purchase floors and rare earth stability.
Escalation +20%: Broad across-the-board tariff imposition triggering high consumer price shock and rapid supply chain diversion.
Strategic Decoupling: Heavy protectionism focused specifically on advanced electronics, semiconductors, and EV battery supply chains.
Pre-Summit Baseline: Status-quo baseline tariffs providing a direct reference point for delta calculations.