Macroeconomic Impact Assessment
Moderate Risk
CPI Shock
+65 bps
Consumer Inflation Impact
Export Contraction
-3.8%
Bilateral Outflow Drop
Deadweight Loss
$42.6B
Net Welfare Destruction
Trade Diversion
$28.4B
Shift to 3rd Parties
Bilateral Escalation Ladder & Flow Transmission
⚖️ Mark Carney & Central Bank Transmission Dilemma
Tariff supply shocks create a textbook stagflation dilemma. While the initial 10% surtax remains proportionate, compounding multi-round escalation threatens consumer real purchasing power while depressing capital formation. Taylor rule model advises monetary tolerance if contained, but aggressive rate hikes if wage indexation kicks in.