US Treasury Issuance & Term Premium Simulator

Policy Presets Refunding Mix Arch

Standard Mandates & Experiments

Fed Policy Rate Path

Gross Annual Issuance $4.20 T

Auction Allocation Mix Sum: 100%

Short-Dated T-Bills (<1Y) 36%

Intermediate Notes (2Y–5Y) 38%

Long Nominal Bonds (10Y–30Y) 18%

TIPS & Index-Linked 8%

Macro Elasticity Framework: Incorporates Greenwood-Hanson-Stein (GHS) supply-duration elasticity ($\Delta TP \approx \beta \cdot \text{Duration Supply}$) with Adrian-Crump-Moench (ACM) decomposition to model Treasury term premia shifts.

10Y Term Premium (ACM)

+34 bps

-26 bps vs Baseline

Annual Interest Outlay

$984.2 B

-$14.8 B (Yr 1)

Rollover Fragility

74.2 / 100

Elevated Refi Drag

10-Yr Benchmark Yield

4.21%

-19 bps vs Normal

Treasury Yield Curve & Term Premium Shift

Comparing Benchmark Baseline vs. Policy Simulated Yields

Baseline (TBAC 18% Bills)

Simulated Curve

Expected Fed Path (Risk-Neutral)

ACM Term Premium Component

5-Year Maturity Rollover Wall & Outlay Trajectory

Projected Principal Due for Refinancing and Cumulative Debt Servicing

Tenor	Baseline Yield	Simulated Yield	Net Shift	Implied Term Premia	Annual Supply

Risk & Duration Audit Quarterly Refunding Metrics

Duration-Weighted Supply: 3.82 Yrs

Primary Dealer Absorption Drag: Moderate (1.4x)

Weighted Avg Maturity (WAM): 68.4 Months

3M Refinancing Exposure: $1.51 T / yr

Policy Trade-Off Matrix

Cumulative 5Y Debt Cost Budgetary Trajectory

Baseline Total Interest: $5.120 T

Simulated Total Interest: $5.078 T

Net Fiscal Impact: -$42.0 B

Refinancing Vulnerability: Short-term savings materialize if rate cuts occur; however, if inflation persists, short-dated roll resets at unhedged higher yields.