Treasury Issuance & Term Premium Simulator
Sovereign debt management lab: Scott Bessent bill issuance mix vs. term premium & rollover risk
Short-End Skew Active
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Export Scenario Data
Policy Presets
Source Scenarios
Bessent T-Bill Surge
42% Bills / Suppress 10Y Yield
Historical TBAC Norm
20% Bills / 60% Notes / 20% Bonds
Duration Lock-In
10% Bills / 50% Notes / 40% Bonds
Refinancing Crunch
55% Bills / +200bps Rate Shock
Issuance Mix Allocator
100%
T-Bills (4W - 52W)
42%
Intermediate Notes (2Y - 7Y)
38%
Long Bonds (10Y - 30Y)
20%
Macro & Market Conditions
Rate Shock (Future Refi Shift)
0 bps
Foreign Demand Elasticity
0.65
Baseline Federal Debt Stock:
$36.2T
| Gross Annual Issuance:
$2.4T
Term Premium Impact
-31.5 bps
Suppression at 10Y tenor
Debt WAM
4.82 yrs
Weighted Avg Maturity
Annual Rollover
$9.84 T
Due within 12 months
5Y Net Interest
$5.26 T
Cumulative federal outlay
Refinancing Risk
Elevated
Vulnerability to rate hike
Sovereign Yield Curve Shift & Term Premium Distortion
Standard Baseline
Policy Yield Curve
Tenor-Level Yield & Debt Absorption Breakdown
Export CSV
Tenor
Base Yield
Supply Shift
Effective Yield
Annual Supply
Rollover Share
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