Capability compounds
Both scenarios reach the same 12.2× raw capability at year ten. This variable alone cannot explain the price difference.
INTELLIGENCE MARKET LAB
A rising curve is not yet a commodity.
Predict what happens when capability compounds. Then watch deployment, review cost, and demand decide what useful intelligence is worth.
Your prediction
Space to run or pause
Raw capability1.0×
Useful capability1.0×
Price / useful task$102.00
Demand index100
Total spend$10,200
↳
Make the claim falsifiable. Choose what you expect before the curve moves.
Illustrative sensitivity model, not a forecast. The supplied source is clipped after “which is used in”.
READ THE TRANSMISSION
The curve passes through a market.
Raw capability is only the input. Deployment determines how much becomes useful; compute and review determine price; elasticity determines whether cheaper tasks shrink or expand the market.
CapabilityTask priceTotal spend
FOLLOW THE CAUSE
Same capability.
Different economy.
The model isolates what the original curve exercise leaves implicit: capability must be deployed, deployment must reduce useful-task cost, and lower prices must meet responsive demand.
Deployment opens the gate
At 99.8% deployment, raw capability becomes 12.15× useful capability. At 25.9%, it becomes only 3.90×.
Review sets a floor
Automated cost can fall quickly, but an irreducible $100 review step keeps the delivered task at $125.65.
Demand can rebound
With elasticity 1.4, a lower unit price creates proportionally more usage. Total spending rises even as each task becomes cheaper.
TRANSFER THE MODEL
Price falls 10×. Demand elasticity is above 1. What happens to total spend?
Complete a simulation, then transfer the reasoning to a new market claim.