Synoptic Storm Mechanics

Tropical Cyclone Genesis & Track Modeler

Investigate thermodynamic storm fuel, vertical shear disruption, and subtropical ridge steering across Atlantic and East Pacific basins. Inspired by dual-basin storm development events.

Environmental Conditions

Dual Basin (Atl & Pac)

Meteorological Scenario

Sea Surface Temp (SST) 28.8°C Threshold for tropical cyclogenesis is ~26.5°C

Deep-Layer Wind Shear (200-850 hPa) 12 kt Shear >20 kt decapitates convective warm cores

Subtropical Ridge (Bermuda / Pacific High) 1024 hPa

Forecast Evolution Hour T+00h (Analysis)

Primary Storm: TS Edouard (Atlantic)

Intensity: Tropical Storm 50 kt (58 mph)

Central Pressure: 996 hPa

Genesis Potential Index: High (7.8 / 10)

Synoptic Forecast Radar & Steering Mesh

Interactive multi-basin tracking chart. Click or drag storm vortex centers to test steering trajectories.

RUNNING PHYSICS MODEL

PACIFIC: TS Fausto | ATLANTIC: TS Edouard

Click & Drag storm eyes to reposition • Scrub time slider to forecast

Dual basin storms organized. Atlantic system traversing favorable 28.8°C SST with low wind shear. Potential hurricane evolution underway.

Scale:

TS (34-63 kt)

Cat 1 (64-82 kt)

Cat 2 (83-95 kt)

Cat 3 (96-112 kt)

Cat 4 (113-136 kt)

Cat 5 (≥137 kt)

H Subtropical Ridge Steering

Dual-Basin Simultaneous Genesis

Simultaneous tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific frequently occur when an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) or Kelvin wave propagates eastward across Central America, lowering surface pressures and triggering deep convection in both oceans.

SST Thermodynamics & Potential Intensity

Tropical systems act as Carnot heat engines fueled by ocean thermal energy. When Sea Surface Temperatures exceed 28.5°C with deep ocean heat content (such as the Gulf Stream or Caribbean warm pools), the Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) dramatically escalates, enabling rapid intensification.

Vertical Wind Shear & Ventilation

Differences in wind velocity between 850 hPa (near-surface) and 200 hPa (upper troposphere) tilt the warm core of the cyclone. Strong shear exceeding 20 knots ventilates dry mid-level air into the eyewall, halting convection and preventing tropical storms from maturing into hurricanes.