Preset Macro Scenarios
Macroeconomic Indicators
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1.1%
-1.0% (Contraction)
1.1% (Forecast)
3.0% (Rapid)
2.3%
1.0%
2.0% Target
5.0%
5.1%
2.0%
5.1% Current
8.0%
52.5
40.0 (Recession)
50.0 (Neutral)
65.0 (Expansion)
Analyst Insight: Economists highlight that services inflation and persistent wage pressures complicate the BoE MPC's path. Small ticks in Q2 GDP & PMI determine whether cuts accelerate.
BoE MPC Interest Rate Decision Probabilities
Weighted Taylor Rule Policy ModelCut 25bps (-0.25%)
35%
Hold Rate (5.00%)
55%
Hike 25bps (+0.25%)
10%
12-Month Simulated Swap & Policy Rate Path
Market Implied CurveHousehold & Corporate Rate Impact Simulator
Direct real-economy transmission from simulated BoE rate shift
£250k Standard Mortgage (Monthly)
£1,498
-£18 / mo
Based on 25-yr repayment term adjusted for projected standard variable/fixed swap rates.
Corporate Debt Service Rate
6.91%
SONIA + 1.91%
Simulated average lending margin for UK SME business refinancing.
Sterling Sensitivity (GBP/USD)
1.2820
Neutral Bias
Expected short-term exchange rate reaction to monetary divergence.
Baseline Model Active: Q2 GDP 1.1%, CPI 2.3%, Wage 5.1%, PMI 52.5 | BoE Hold: 55%, Cut: 35%, Hike: 10%