UK GDP Growth Decomposition Model

Grounded in Reuters reportage on Gulf ceasefire, World Cup & summer sunshine

Macro Workbench

Net GDP Delta +0.35% Quarterly Boost

Energy Relief Offset +0.14% Cost Deflation

Hospitality Delta +0.13% World Cup Boost

Retail Uplift +0.08% Sunshine Effect

Scenario Presets

Driver Intensities

Ceasefire Relief 1.2x

World Cup Demand 1.5x

Sunshine Effect 1.0x

Quarterly GDP Waterfall Decomposition Contributions in Basis Points (% Delta)

Sectoral Impact Matrix

Sector	Primary Macro Driver	Baseline Elasticity	Simulated Basis Points	Net Output Impact

Net Quarterly UK GDP Contribution: +0.35% (Ceasefire Energy Offset: +0.14%, World Cup Hospitality: +0.13%, Sunshine Retail Uplift: +0.08%)