UK Labour Market 'Low-Hire, Low-Fire' Dynamics Simulator

Regime Levers

ECONOMIC REGIME PRESETS

Quarterly Recruitment Rate 2.10%

Redundancy / Firing Rate 0.70%

Labor Hoarding Propensity 0.68

Wage Stickiness Index 0.74

Unfilled Vacancies 840k

Initial Unemployment 4.20%

Captures low job churn, structural skill hoarding, wage inertia, and suppressed allocative efficiency across 33.2M UK workforce.

Quarterly Churn Rate

2.80%

Hires + Redundancies

Steady-State Unemp

4.35%

Equilibrium Flow Balance

Labor Misallocation

62.4

Hoarding lock-in (0–100)

Annual Productivity Drag

1.42%

Sub-optimal matching friction

Markov Workforce Transition Flow Stock & Churn

Beveridge Curve (V/U Trajectory) V/U Ratio: 0.60

Baseline (Active) vs Reform Dynamic

Metric	Current Simulated	Revival Counterfactual	Variance (Δ)