BoE Rate Cut Pricing
-18.4 bps
Next MPC Meeting
UK 2-Year Gilt Yield
-9.2 bps
Spread vs Bunds/Treasuries
GBP / USD Spot
1.2785
-0.51% (-65 pips)
GBP / EUR Spot
1.1678
-0.36% (-42 pips)
Empirical Transmission Flow (Labour → Rates → FX)
Step 1: Labour Data
Wage & Job Cooling
40 bps negative wage surprise and 20 bps rise in joblessness ease core inflation pressure.
Step 2: BoE MPC Path
Rate Cut Probability
Implied MPC rate cut pricing expands to 18.4 bps ahead of next policy vote.
Step 3: Gilt Curves
2Y Yield Compression
Short-dated UK sovereign yields drop 9.2 bps, narrowing Sterling's carry advantage.
Step 4: FX Market
Sterling Depreciation
GBP slides -0.51% against USD and -0.36% against EUR via interest rate parity channels.
Sterling Sensitivity vs Wage Surprises
MPC Meetings Implied Rate Cut Matrix
| MPC Decision Date | Baseline Rate | Priced Easing | Projected Bank Rate | 25 bps Cut Implied Odds |
|---|