YES Contract Price
18.0¢
Market Probability: 18.0%
NO Contract Price
82.0¢
Implied Failure Odds: 82.0%
Yr 1 Deportation Target
2,496
Out of 10,400 prisoners
Primary Bottleneck
Legal Injunction & ECHR Appeal Delay
Dominant constraint factor
Order Book Depth
Token: FARAGE-DEPORT-26
Side / Size
Shares
Price (¢)
CLEARING PRICE
YES: 18.0¢ | NO: 82.0¢
5-Year Trajectory Projector
D3.js Dynamic Simulation
Cumulative Deportations
Target Fulfillment Threshold
📊 Quantitative Policy & Market Analysis
At a Reform election probability of 28.0% and current legal parameter settings, prediction market clearing prices value YES contracts at 18.0¢. The primary operational constraint remains Legal Injunction & ECHR Appeal Delay, projecting a Year 1 deportation volume of 2,496 foreign offenders against the total prisoner baseline of 10,400.