Policy Parameters
Scenario Presets
Enforcement Aggressiveness
75%
Retailer Compliance Rate
60%
Initial YES Odds ($)
0.42
Under-Age Non-Compliance Fine
£10,000
Annual Local Licensing Fee
£2,500
Polymarket Implied YES
78.0%
+36.0% market drift
Estimated Shop Closures
28.5%
Independent shops high risk
Time to Enforcement
4.2 mos
Projected full adoption
Annual Compliance Cost
£14.2k
Per retail outlet
Implied Probability Density & Path
Retail Impact: Indie vs Chain
Policy Framework Comparison Matrix
| Framework Metric | Current Model | GM Pilot | UK Legislative Ban | Laissez-Faire |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract Odds ('YES') | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.91 | 0.24 |
| Est. Retail Closures | 28.5% | 28.5% | 42.0% | 8.0% |
| Enforcement Horizon | 4.2 mos | 4.2 mos | 2.1 mos | 10.5 mos |