Vaping Harm Reduction Tradeoff Explorer

Population Markov Cohort Model (100,000 Adults & Youth Over Time)

Net QALY Delta (Cohort)
+34,280
+0.34 QALYs / person
Premature Deaths Averted
1,842
Cardio/Pulmonary & Oncological
Switch-to-Initiation Breakeven
1 : 18.4
Youth uptake per 1 adult quitter
Population Verdict
Net Positive
Adult benefit exceeds youth risk
Markov Cohort Trajectory (100k Population) State distributions over time
Cumulative Net QALY Balance Trajectory Positive net life quality
Switching-to-Initiation Breakeven Matrix Net QALY outcome across rates
Comparative Biomarker Toxicant Ledger
Biomarker / Exposure Combustible Tobacco E-Cigarette Aerosol Harm Reduction Ratio
Carbon Monoxide (CO exhaled) 15 - 35 ppm < 1.5 ppm (Ambient) > 95% reduction
Tobacco-Specific Nitrosamines (NNK, NNN) 300 - 1,200 ng/day 0.8 - 4.2 ng/day > 98% reduction
Volatile Organics (Acrolein, Benzene) High toxicant load Trace / near undetectable > 90% reduction
Particulate Ultra-fines & Flavorings High combustion tar Propylene glycol / vegetable glycerin Residual respiratory risk
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