Policy Glidepath & Mandate Preset Scenarios
PHEV Credit Multiplier
0.50
Fractional credit granted per qualifying plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (0.0 to 0.8).
Quota Borrowing Flexibility
35%
Allowable forward deficit borrowing from future compliance years (2024-2026).
Penalty Relief Factor
15%
Statutory fine discount or temporary restructuring for transitioning OEMs.
Credit Market Friction
10%
Transaction discount/transaction cost in peer-to-peer credit trading pool.
ZEV Target vs Expected Fleet EV Share (2024–2030)
Annual % Sales Quotas
Automaker Archetype Cohorts (2026 Milestone)
Volume: 245,000 UK Units
| Archetype | Volume | EV Share | Credit Balance | Net Impact |
|---|
*Pure EV players sell surplus credits to offset deficits of transitioning and legacy OEMs.
Multi-Year Regulatory & Carbon Accounting Ledger
Statutory fine £15,000/car | 165g CO2/km ICE baseline
| Year | ZEV Target (%) | Modeled EV Sales | Net Credit Deficit/Surplus | Gross Fine Exposure | Net Post-Flex Fines | Annual Fleet CO₂ (Mt) | Cumulative CO₂ Delta (Mt) |
|---|