Simulation Telemetry & Season Path
200 simulated paths| Bet # | Line | Stake | Outcome | Return | Bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Click "Run Season Sim" or "+1 Game" to start recording wagers. | |||||
The "+260 ML Upset" Anatomy
When an NFL backup quarterback upsets a defending champion, books price the moneyline around +260. A +260 line requires only 27.78% win probability to break even. If personnel adjustments or defensive scheming give the team a 32.0% true chance, you hold a +15.2% positive expected value (+EV).
Variance & Risk of Ruin
Even with an enormous +15% edge, underdogs lose roughly 68% of the time. Losing streaks of 6 to 9 consecutive games are normal across an NFL season. Staking flat 2.5% or fractional Kelly protects your bankroll against drawdown, whereas aggressive flat stakes risk total liquidation.
Kelly Criterion Formula
Full Kelly fraction = (b*p - q) / b, where b is decimal profit odds (2.60 for +260), p is true probability (0.32), and q = 1 - p (0.68). Quarter Kelly divides this fraction by 4 to dramatically dampen drawdowns while capturing the compound growth.